**Critical Bullet Points:** 1. EIA forecasts higher crude oil prices into 2024 due to moderate inventory drawdowns when demand exceeds supply. 2. Expected average Brent crude oil price increase to mid-$80 per barrel range by the end of 2024, from June 2023 average of $75 per barrel. 3. OPEC+ agreement to extend crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024. 4. Saudi Arabia announced voluntary oil production cut of 1.0 million b/d for July and August 2023, with its production estimated at 10% of global production. 5. Forecasted lower OPEC production in 2024 compared to pre-pandemic levels, reducing its share of world production. 6. World petroleum consumption growth led by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. 7. Oil price volatility in 2023 has been considerably less than between 2020 and 2022. 8. Projections suggest slower growth in global liquid fuels consumption in 2024 and 2025 due to factors like economic headwinds and improved vehicle fleet efficiency. 9. Brent crude oil price expected to average $82 per barrel in 2024, and potentially drop to $79/b in 2025 due to expected modest inventory builds applying downward pressure on prices. 10. U.S. crude oil production forecasted to reach record levels by 2024 and 2025, driven by increases in well efficiency, despite growth slowing due to fewer active drilling rigs. 11. Natural gas prices expected to rise in 2024 and 2025, influenced by slowing growth in natural gas production and increasing U.S. exports. 12. U.S. coal production expected to decline due to reduced consumption in the electric power sector. **Logic and Rationale:** - The forecast from the EIA about moderate inventory drawdowns suggests a relatively tight market where demand is outpacing supply. This condition typically exerts upward pressure on prices. - OPEC+'s decision to extend production cuts is a critical factor that supports higher oil prices by intentionally limiting supply. - The voluntary production cuts by key players like Saudi Arabia demonstrate concerted efforts by some of the world's largest producers to manage oil prices upward by adjusting output levels. - Rising consumption in populous non-OECD countries points to increased demand, which can also contribute to higher prices, given that these economies are continuing to develop and industrialize. - Despite potential headwinds like increased vehicle efficiency and economic challenges that may temper demand growth, the overall trajectory in global consumption is upward, influencing prices accordingly. - Record U.S. crude production levels contribute to the supply side, but the projected slow growth rate and the strategic approach of OPEC+ will likely mitigate the impact on prices. Based on these points, a careful balance between supply and demand is noted, with OPEC+ maintaining a strong influence on the market. Additionally, global geopolitical and economic factors play crucial roles in affecting both the demand and supply sides of the equation. **Forecast:** Considering the factors mentioned above, including OPEC+'s continued production cuts, forecasted growth in oil consumption especially from non-OECD countries, and the expected increase in U.S. oil production tapering off, there is a rationale for predicting an oil price that reflects a tight but balanced market. Therefore, the most probable scenario should be towards the higher end of the forecast range provided by the EIA. The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $85 USD per barrel.