Based on the provided documents, here are the critical bullet points extracted to inform the forecast for oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year: 1. The EIA forecasts crude oil prices will increase through 2024 as demand rises above supply, primarily due to OPEC production cuts and higher petroleum consumption, especially from non-OECD countries like China and India. 2. The forecast Brent crude oil price will increase to the mid-$80 per barrel range by the end of 2024, up from the June 2023 average of $75 per barrel. 3. OPEC+ members agreed to extend crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024, with Saudi Arabia announcing a new voluntary oil production cut of 1.0 million b/d for July and August 2023. 4. Production cuts will keep total OPEC production below the pre-pandemic five-year average and reduce OPEC’s share of world production. 5. World petroleum consumption growth is expected, with significant contributions from China and India. 6. Oil prices in 2023 were less volatile compared to the erratic behavior observed between 2020 and 2022, suggesting a stabilizing market that could influence future prices. 7. External market and geopolitical factors, including conflicts and sanctions, could also exert upward pressure on oil prices. Logic and Rationale for Forecast: The forecasted rise in Brent crude oil prices to the mid-$80 per barrel range by the end of 2024 is logical given the consistent demand growth, particularly from emerging economies such as China and India. OPEC's decision to extend production cuts through the end of 2024, coupled with voluntary cuts from key members like Saudi Arabia, suggests a strong effort to balance supply with rising demand and support higher price levels. These production cuts effectively reduce global supply, exerting upward pressure on prices. However, potential geopolitical events, supply disruptions, or significant changes in global economic conditions could introduce price volatility. The forecast must consider the current stabilizing trends in oil prices and the impact of OPEC’s controlled production strategy. Considering these factors, it is reasonable to project that oil prices will be influenced by disciplined OPEC+ production levels, increasing global demand, especially from non-OECD countries, and potential geopolitical risks that typically result in short-term price spikes. Forecast: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $85 USD per barrel. This forecast aligns with the EIA's projections and factors in market dynamics, OPEC+ production decisions, and global demand trends. However, it's important to remain cautious about unforeseen geopolitical or economic events that could significantly impact the global oil market.