PREDICTION: 0.90 JUSTIFICATION: The increased probability to 0.90 that July 2024 will be the hottest July on record is influenced by several key observations and trends outlined from the recent data up to March 2024. These updated considerations significantly bolster the forecast, underscoring a more urgent expectation for record-breaking temperatures. The rationale for this updated forecast is based on the following critical factors: - **Record-Breaking Early Year Temperatures**: The recent reporting reveals that February 2024 was the warmest February on record globally. With a surface temperature anomaly of 1.40°C (2.52°F) above the 20th-century average, this sets an unprecedented pace for yearly temperature elevations. Such a significant anomaly early in the year hints at a continual escalation towards the middle of the year, particularly in July. - **Persistent El Niño Conditions**: The continuation of El Niño conditions into February 2024, coupled with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's projection that these conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral by April-June 2024, with an increasing chance of La Niña developing later, suggests significant warming effects on global temperatures in the preceding months. El Niño historically contributes to increased global temperatures, and its presence going into the mid-year could amplify July temperatures. - **Global Ocean Surface Temperature Records**: The observation of record-high monthly global ocean surface temperatures for 11 consecutive months, including February 2024, underscores the intensity of the warming trend. Ocean temperatures play a crucial role in regulating the global climate, and such anomalies suggest elevated temperature patterns extending into mid-2024. - **Warming Trends Across Both Hemispheres**: The data indicating the Northern Hemisphere tying its warmest February on record and the Southern Hemisphere recording its warmest February highlight widespread warming. The simultaneous warming across both hemispheres suggests a global trend that is likely to persist, impacting mid-year temperatures. - **Historic December-February Period Temperatures**: The declaration that December 2023–February 2024 was the warmest such period in the 175-year record adds weight to the trajectory toward unprecedented heat in July. Winter in the Northern Hemisphere and summer in the Southern Hemisphere both setting records for warmth outline a clear trend towards increasing global temperatures. - **January-February 2024 as the Warmest Start**: The global surface temperature for January–February 2024 being the warmest in the 175-year record further supports the anticipation of continued, and possibly escalating, temperature anomalies leading into and including July. Taking into account these recent developments – particularly the record-setting global surface and ocean temperatures in the early months of 2024, the continued impact of El Niño conditions, and the precedent set by recent seasonal temperature records – the forecast probability is revised upwards to 0.90. This adjustment reflects the compounded effect of early-year temperature anomalies, historical trend data indicating a continuing rise in global temperatures, and the considerable warmth observed across various global regions, solidifying the expectation that July 2024 could set new temperature records.