PREDICTION: 0.92 JUSTIFICATION: The updated forecast to a 0.92 probability that July 2024 will be the hottest July on record is supported by the continuation and acceleration of temperature anomalies and climatic conditions observed up to March 2024. This revised probability reflects an assessment of the latest data and trends, reinforcing the expectation of record-breaking temperatures. The increased probability is justified by the following critical observations: - **Sustained Record Temperatures**: February 2024 setting a new record as the warmest February on record globally, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature anomaly of 0.81°C above the 1991-2020 average for February, aligns with a continuing pattern of temperature anomalies. This marks the ninth consecutive month of record warmth for its respective month, indicating a powerful and ongoing warming trend. - **Global Average Temperatures**: The global-average temperature for the past twelve months (March 2023–February 2024) reaching the highest on record, at 0.68°C above the 1991-2020 average, underscores an unprecedented rate of increase. This trend significantly influences the likelihood of July hitting record highs. - **Ocean Temperature Records**: The record-high global sea surface temperatures observed, with February 2024 witnessing the highest ever for any month in the dataset, provide a clear indication of the heat accumulated in the climate system. The oceans play a crucial role in global weather patterns, and such elevated temperatures are expected to contribute to warmer global air temperatures, influencing conditions leading up to July. - **Widespread Geographic Warmth**: The report of much-above-average temperatures in various regions, including Europe, northern Siberia, central and northwest North America, South America, across Africa, and in western Australia, points to a global scale of warming. Such widespread anomalies argue for the continuation of this warming trend into the mid-year. - **Diminishing El Niño**: While El Niño conditions were observed to weaken in the equatorial Pacific, the overall high marine air temperatures suggest that the residual effects may still contribute to enhancing global temperatures in the lead-up to July. - **Precedence of High Winter Temperatures**: The boreal winter of 2023/2024 being the warmest globally at 0.78°C above the 1991-2020 average further illustrates the momentum of the current warming phase, bolstering the expectation for a hot July. Considering these critical indicators, including sustained and broad geographic temperature anomalies, remarkable ocean temperature records, and the momentum of recent warming trends, the forecast for July 2024 to be the hottest on record is updated to a 0.92 probability. This adjustment acknowledges the strong and consistent evidence pointing toward an escalation in global temperatures, suggesting that the existing patterns will likely culminate in unprecedented heat in July 2024.