PREDICTION: 0.95 JUSTIFICATION: **Updated Justification:** Upon review of the recent developments up to the current date, here are several critical considerations for adjusting the forecast concerning Aurora Innovation's potential to generate revenue in 2024. **Review of Latest Developments:** - **Commercial Pilot with Hirschbach Motor Lines**: The initiation of a commercial pilot for refrigerated cargo hauling between Dallas and Houston, in partnership with Hirschbach Motor Lines, is a significant step toward operational and commercial viability. This demonstrates Aurora Innovation's move from testing to real-world application scenarios, enhancing the likelihood of transitioning into revenue-generating operations. - **Broadening Operational Capabilities and Market Reach**: The expansion of Aurora's operational capabilities to include refrigerated goods transportation and the establishment of a next-generation trucking terminal designed for advanced commercial driverless operations signifies a critical infrastructure and capability development, supporting a broader market outreach and service offering. - **Increased Operational Load Volume and Feature Completion**: Aurora's expectation to increase pilot load volume to 100 loads per week by the end of 2023 and the announcement of the Aurora Driver being Feature Complete reflect significant progress towards commercial readiness. The closing of the Aurora Driver Safety Case for driverless operations between Dallas and Houston by the year-end indicates nearing the final phase of validation before commercial launch. - **Strategic Industry Partnerships and Support for Market Adoption**: Ongoing partnerships with leaders across the transportation ecosystem such as FedEx, Volvo Trucks, PACCAR, and others, underscore industry confidence and support for Aurora's technology, facilitating a conducive environment for market adoption and revenue generation. **Updated Assessment:** The concrete steps towards commercial pilots, expanding operational capabilities, gearing up for an increase in load volume, and securing strategic partnerships substantially bolster the case for Aurora Innovation's readiness to generate revenue in 2024. These developments point towards a successful transition from pilot operations to commercial deployments. However, it remains imperative to monitor the transition from pilot testing to securing paying customers, the scalability of operations, and the broader market adoption of Aurora's technology. Regulatory considerations and the broader economic context will also play a role in shaping this trajectory. Based on the recent advancements as outlined, along with the strategic direction and operational momentum gaining towards commercialization, confidence in Aurora Innovation's potential to generate revenue in 2024 is strengthened. **Therefore, the updated probability that Aurora Innovation will generate revenue in 2024, as reported in its financial filings with the SEC, is adjusted to 0.95.** This adjustment reflects increased confidence in Aurora Innovation's operational advancements, market readiness, and strategic industry partnerships, which collectively support a stronger basis for the anticipation of revenue generation in 2024.