Given the forecasted and current conditions described in the provided facts, it's evident that several factors will influence the oil price by the end of the 2024 calendar year. These include OPEC+ production decisions, global oil demand and supply dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and expectations for the U.S. dollar's performance. Starting with the supply side, OPEC+ has been engaging in production restraint, including announcing 2.2 million barrels per day of new voluntary cuts through March 2024 [1], which suggests a tighter supply and potential upward pressure on prices. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates that OPEC+ might produce less than its currently stated targets in 2024, and some members may push for a reduction or end to production restraint after Q1 2024, potentially leading to increased production and lower prices [2]. Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to see a slowdown in production growth, indicating a somewhat constrained supply from these producers as well [3, 4]. On the demand side, oil demand is projected to rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2024, supported by markets in emerging economies, the U.S., and Europe [5]. This increased demand should exert upward pressure on prices. However, the global supply and demand for petroleum liquids are expected to be relatively balanced, contributing to a stable price forecast [6]. Also, global petroleum consumption growth rates are slightly lower than the 10-year pre-pandemic average [7], suggesting that demand pressures may not be as strong as in past years. Other factors such as geopolitical tensions [8, 9] and the performance of the U.S. dollar [10] also play a critical role in determining oil prices. Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, have historically led to increases in oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions. The strong U.S. dollar, which is expected to maintain elevated levels in 2024 with potential for new highs, typically exerts downward pressure on oil prices since oil is priced in dollars. Balancing these factors, the EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $82 per barrel in 2024 [11], with other estimates suggesting an average of $81 per barrel [12] and projection of demand leading to Brent crude expected to average $83 per barrel [13]. Considering the balance of the above factors and the current oil price of about $86.74 [AF1], it seems likely that the price might adjust downwards slightly by the end of 2024 due to projected increased production, efforts to stabilize prices, and the potential balancing act between demand and supply alongside the impact of a strong U.S. dollar. Therefore, synthesizing the information provided, the forecast for the oil price by the end of the 2024 calendar year would be slightly below the current level, considering the expected push towards increased production, the strong U.S. dollar, balanced supply and demand, alongside the potential for geopolitical developments to add volatility. The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $81 USD per barrel. Sources: 1 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 2 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 3 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 4 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 5 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook 6 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 7 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 8 :: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/commodity-markets-outlook-eight-charts-1 9 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/crude-oil-prices-today.html 10 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook 11 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 12 :: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/commodity-markets-outlook-eight-charts-1 13 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook