Considering the additional factors described, such as the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran [1], the subsequent impact on oil prices, and drone attacks on Russian oil refineries combined with global supply constraints [2], it is evident that geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions play a critical role in influencing oil prices. The initial decrease in prices following the reduction of Israeli troops in Gaza [3, 4] hints at the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments and their immediate impact on supply perceptions. However, the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas [5] and Iran's warning about potential retaliations [6] introduce a level of uncertainty that could contribute to volatility in the oil markets. Additionally, considering the contribution of drone attacks and global supply constraints to the lifting of crude oil prices [7], it is clear that both geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics are in play, potentially exerting upward pressure on oil prices beyond the initially forecasted decrease. Given these new elements and the previously forecasted figure of $81 USD per barrel based on a balance of supply-demand dynamics, OPEC+ decisions, global demand, and the strength of the U.S. dollar, it's necessary to reassess the potential for increased volatility and upward pressure on oil prices due to these geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Keeping in mind the complex interplay between these factors, and considering the initial forecast did not fully account for the heightened geopolitical tensions [8, 9] and their potential impact on supply disruptions [10], there may be a slight upward revision necessary to account for these additional risks. Therefore, refining the forecast in light of these considerations, while the initial analysis suggested a downward adjustment from current levels due to increased production and a strong U.S. dollar among other factors, the recent geopolitical developments and their impact on supply might lead to a more stable or slightly increased price level than previously anticipated. Thus, the adjusted forecast, accounting for these factors, could place the oil price by the end of the 2024 calendar year at a slightly higher level than initially predicted, with a moderate upward adjustment to reflect the potential for supply disruptions and geopolitical instability affecting the market. The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $83 USD per barrel. Sources: 1 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 2 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 3 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 4 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 5 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 6 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 7 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 8 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 9 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html 10 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html