Given the absence of direct references to the specific details of the escalation between Israel and Iran, drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, or the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas from the provided facts [f109, f108, f104, etc.], I must base the updated forecast on the overall trends and information contained within those facts. The facts provided discuss several key points related to the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market, geopolitical tensions, expectations on oil prices from Occidental, and the current state of oversupply with a projected shift to a potential shortage by the end of 2025 [1, 2]. We also see information on rising prices amidst geopolitical tensions and an increase in U.S. crude stockpiles suggesting a temporary drop in demand [3, 4]. Additionally, the forecast must consider the expected economic recovery and decreasing inflation which could influence oil demand [5, 6]. Given the significant variables at play, including supply concerns, geopolitical tensions, the expected transition from oversupply to shortage by the end of 2025 [7, 8], and economic factors influencing demand [9, 10], it's reasonable to anticipate some volatility but also an upward pressure on prices as the market starts to adjust in anticipation of future supply constraints. Therefore, in refining the forecast to account for these complex interplays and the absence of specific referenced events within the earlier forecast justification, I would posit a moderated approach that leans on the expected economic recovery, slight demand increases, and the market's anticipation of future supply shortages. This leads to an updated speculative forecast slightly above the initial estimate provided by Occidental for an average price in 2024 [11], taking into account the expected market adjustments, existing geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators. However, without direct references to escalate tensions and specific events affecting the supply in the provided facts, and basing the estimate on the available information that indicates a general trend towards increasing prices influenced by various discussed factors, a conservative adjustment from the previous forecast seems warranted. The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $84 USD per barrel. Sources: 1 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/oil-market-will-face-supply-shortage-by-end-of-2025-occidental-ceo-says.html 2 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/oil-market-will-face-supply-shortage-by-end-of-2025-occidental-ceo-says.html 3 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/crude-oil-prices-today.html 4 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/crude-oil-prices-today.html 5 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202312_eurosystemstaff~9a39ab5088.en.html 6 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202312_eurosystemstaff~9a39ab5088.en.html 7 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/oil-market-will-face-supply-shortage-by-end-of-2025-occidental-ceo-says.html 8 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/oil-market-will-face-supply-shortage-by-end-of-2025-occidental-ceo-says.html 9 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202312_eurosystemstaff~9a39ab5088.en.html 10 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202312_eurosystemstaff~9a39ab5088.en.html 11 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/oil-market-will-face-supply-shortage-by-end-of-2025-occidental-ceo-says.html