**Updated Prediction: 0.95** **Updated Justification:** The most recent data and findings significantly bolster the prediction that July 2024 has a very high probability of being the hottest July on record. Notably, the confirmation that 2023 was the warmest year on record, with a global average near-surface temperature of 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, underscores the ongoing and aggressive progression of global warming. The consistency of extreme weather patterns, such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and the intensification of tropical cyclones, further illustrates the climatic changes conducive to setting new temperature records. Records broken in 2023 for ocean heat, sea level rise, Antarctic sea ice loss, and glacier retreat are indicative of systemic climate changes that are likely to perpetuate, if not exacerbate, warmth into the mid-year of 2024. Specifically, the loss of Antarctic sea ice and glacier retreat contribute to lowered albedo, potentially increasing the absorption of solar radiation and subsequent warming. The reported unprecedented ocean warmth with nearly one-third of global oceans experiencing marine heatwaves on any given day in 2023 is particularly alarming, as oceans play a critical role in regulating the Earth’s climate. Such conditions not only disrupt marine ecosystems but also influence atmospheric temperatures, setting the stage for further terrestrial warming. The shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions in the middle of 2023 contributed to a rapid rise in temperature from 2022 to 2023, a factor that historically precedes warmer global temperatures, including increased chances for record-breaking heat during the El Niño’s influence. The potential carryover effect into 2024, especially if El Niño conditions persist or intensify, could significantly impact global weather patterns, leading to hotter dry regions and even contributing to higher global average temperatures during the summer months. Furthermore, the socio-economic impacts of climate extremes seen in 2023, such as the doubling of acutely food insecure individuals and the significant socio-economic losses from weather-related disasters, highlight the extensive reach of climate anomalies and underscore the grand scale of observed climatic changes. Given these considerations and the direct correlation between increased greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures, the trajectory towards hotter global temperatures continues upward. The implementation of renewable energy sources, while promising for long-term mitigation, has yet to curb the immediate trajectory of global warming sufficiently to impact July 2024 temperatures significantly. **Therefore, considering the compounded effects of record-breaking global warmth in 2023, persistent increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, unprecedented oceanic heat and ice loss, as well as the transition to El Niño conditions, the probability for July 2024 being the hottest on record is adjusted to 0.95.** This reflects a heightened certainty grounded in the latest comprehensive data indicators of accelerated climate change and its cascading effects on global temperatures.